Nice property market, October 2026: rising rates, steady prices and a budget to watch

This autumn, three things matter for anyone buying, selling or letting between Nice and Menton. Mortgage rates are going up again. Prices in Nice are holding steady rather than falling. And the 2027 budget bill now before Parliament could change the tax treatment of furnished rentals. Here is what the latest figures say, with sources, and how I read them as an advisor and as an investor myself.

Mortgage rates: the climb has resumed

The reference survey of French home loans, the Observatoire Crédit Logement/CSA, presented its third-quarter figures on 15 October 2026. The average rate on new home loans reached 3.40% in September 2026, up from 3.25% in June and 3.16% in December 2025. On 25-year loans the average was 3.45%. The average loan term held at 252 months (21 years). Lending activity is slowing too: in Q3 2026 the amount of new loans was down 9.2% year on year, and the number of loans down 8.1%.

Brokers say the rise is speeding up:

• Meilleurtaux (simulation of 12 October 2026) says banks' standard rates, before negotiation, average 3.86%, compared with 3.69% in early September. After negotiation, it expects about 3.40% over 15 years, 3.50–3.55% over 20 years and 3.60–3.65% over 25 years.
• CAFPI (updated 19 October 2026) gives average rates for Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur of 3.30% over 15 years, 3.38% over 20 years and 3.55% over 25 years. It notes that the ECB raised its key rates by 0.25 point on 10 September, and it expects average rates of 3.70% to 4% by the end of 2026. The next ECB meeting, on 29 October, is the one to watch.

There is also a legal ceiling. Since 1 October 2026 the usury rate set by the Banque de France is 5.40% for fixed-rate loans of 20 years or more, 4.68% for 10 to under 20 years and 4.09% under 10 years. This cap applies to the all-in APR (TAEG), which includes borrower insurance and fees, not just the interest rate. Meilleurtaux warns that the cap may start blocking small loans and older borrowers, or borrowers with health issues, whose insurance costs more.

What this means in practice: if you plan to buy in the next few months, get your financing ready before you start viewings: a broker's or bank's agreement in principle, your deposit, and a list of the documents you will need. If you are not resident in France, allow extra time, because banks look closely at foreign income. My Financing guides explain the basics.

Nice prices: a pause, not a fall

Price estimates for Nice changed very little this autumn:

• MoneyVox (14 October 2026) puts the average apartment price at €5,245/m² in October, against €5,219 in September (+0.5%). For houses it reports €6,365/m², against €6,427 (−0.96%). Apartment rents rose slightly, from €20.70 to €20.90/m² a month.
• L'Obs (1 October 2026) reported that Nice and the Côte d'Azur slowed slightly in spring: according to Meilleurs Agents, apartment prices fell 1.4% and villa prices 0.5%. Activity picked up again over the summer, driven by international buyers.

Those figures are market estimates. What buyers actually paid is lower. On my Market prices page, which uses the government's notarised-sales register (DVF), the median apartment price in Nice was €4,853/m² in 2025, based on 7,250 sales. The provisional figure for the first half of 2026 is €4,948/m².

Higher rates reduce what the same monthly payment can buy. CAFPI calculates that €1,000 a month over 25 years buys 37.94 m² in Nice in October 2026, against 39.87 m² a year earlier (−4.85%). With prices flat, that is the real squeeze on buyers right now. It also explains why well-priced properties still sell, while over-priced ones stay on the market.

The 2027 budget: proposals, not law (yet)

The government filed the 2027 budget bill (PLF 2027) with the National Assembly on 1 October 2026. Parliament can still change any of it. The measures that matter most for property are:

• A new "parenthood" zero-rate loan (PTZ). It would be open, under income conditions, to households expecting a child or with a child under three, even if they have already used a PTZ. Each person could use it only once.
• Larger tax-free cash gifts. For gifts of money made until 30 June 2027, the exemption for gifts to a child or grandchild would rise from €31,865 to €50,000. A reduced 6% gift-tax rate would apply up to €100,000 for recipients under 50. This is useful when parents help with a deposit.
• Furnished rentals (LMNP). The depreciation that non-professional furnished landlords can deduct would be capped at 2.5% a year and €7,000 per tax household. For tourist lets (meublés de tourisme), the bill's article 7 would set a lower cap of 1.5% and €5,000, as reported by Investir (Les Echos) and quoted in amendments filed at the National Assembly. On 8 October the Finance Committee voted for one amendment that exempts main-residence furnished leases and bail mobilité, and for another that removes depreciation entirely for tourist lets bought from 1 January 2027. The committee then rejected the whole first part of the budget on 9 October, so the debate in the chamber restarted from the government's original text.
• Update, 21 October 2026: the vote has been postponed. The National Assembly was due to vote on the first part of the budget (the tax measures, including furnished lets) on 20 October, but that vote did not take place. Debate was suspended on the evening of 19 October with more than 2,000 amendments still to examine, to make way for the Social Security budget, as Le Monde and Les Echos reported on 20 October. MPs had not yet reached the furnished-rental article, so nothing on LMNP or tourist lets has been voted in the chamber. According to the Assemblée nationale, the debate resumes on 27 October and the vote on the first part is now scheduled for 3 November 2026. Even after that vote, the text still goes to the Senate, then to a joint committee of both chambers, and only becomes law once it is finally adopted and promulgated, normally by late December.

My advice: don't change your plans because of a draft that MPs have not even voted on yet. If you own a furnished rental under the réel (actual-expenses) regime, ask your accountant how much unused depreciation you have carried forward. Then wait for the final law.

Holiday lets in Nice: the quota window is open

Since 1 September 2026, new rules govern short-term letting in Nice. In four zones (Vieux-Nice, Port–Riquier–Mont Boron, the city centre and the west), new holiday-let permits are capped at 691 for 2026, and first applications can only be filed online during a window that closes in December. I explain the rules, the deadline and what buyers should check in a separate guide: Holiday lets in Nice 2026: new quotas and rules explained.

What I would do now

1. Buyers: get your financing ready now. Rates are more likely to rise than fall before the end of the year.
2. Sellers: price your property from actual sale prices (DVF), not from asking prices. Buyers' budgets are shrinking.
3. Investors: run your numbers for a long-term furnished let and for a holiday let side by side. Both the tax rules and Nice's permit rules are shifting.

Whatever your plans, I'm happy to talk them through. I speak English, French, Italian and Russian, and I work with trusted partner agencies in Monaco and Italy. See my current properties or get in touch.